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The king of hybrid cars, the Toyota Prius, will not offer a third generation hybrid drive until sometime in 2009 as a 2010 model - at least that's based on the latest reports (and rumors).
Early reports once indicated that the new hybrid drive would offer lithium-ion batteries. "We will change the battery from nickel hydride to the lithium battery," CEO Katsuaki Watanabe told Business Week last year.
Not long after, however, rumors against such a lithium move hit the blogosphere. Later rumors even claimed that lithium-powered hybrids from Toyota had been delayed by at least 1 to 2 years due to safety precautions. All the while Toyota has been very tight-lipped on the subject.
Nonetheless, Toyota has confirmed that lithium will not power the 2010 Toyota Prius, at least not at first.
Toyota continues to work on its lithium technology. Toyota has even indicated that the first Toyota hybrid to utilize lithium might actually be a Lexus model, followed by a plug-in version of the Toyota Prius.
The standard 2010 Toyota Prius also will not be a plug-in hybrid. However, Toyota will begin selling a NiMH-powered plug-in Prius for fleet sales starting in late 2010. Sometime in 2010, the plug-in Prius might also become available for individual sales.
Bigger, faster, more efficient Prius, nonetheless, what will it cost?
Without lithium, major improvements are not expected in fuel economy. Still, the third generation Prius will be a little bigger, faster and 10 - 20 percent more fuel efficient than the second generation Prius.
That could mean more than 50 mpg on the highway, and as high as 60 in the city - conservatively speaking - in a body 3 to 4 inches longer and an inch wider. Obviously, those whom have mastered the art of hybrid driving will achieve far better numbers.
So, how much faster? The new Prius will move from a 1.5-liter inline 4 to a 1.8 inline 4 engine that adds 25 extra horsepower for a total of 100 hp. Combined with a new, advanced electric motor that new Prius will offer as much as 160 hp compared to today's 110 hp.
Does that make the third generation Prius worth more than the current version? Will there be a price increase, a decrease?
Originally, Toyota had suggested that the next generation Toyota Prius, utilizing a Third Generation Hybrid Synergy Drive - a hybrid powertrain predicted to be half the weight of the current Prius powertrain - would cut in half hybrid technology costs.
Toyota sources claimed the third generation hybrid technology, "will cut prices for eco-friendly vehicles, reduce fuel costs and slash production expenses."
Was that prediction made utilizing lithium? Was the prediction battery independent?
How did, or does, this affect price?
Likewise, Toyota will also have to contend with the Honda Insight for hybrid sales.
2010 Prius waiting lists?
Toyota is already planning a 60 percent increase in Prius production for 2009. This increase seems to coincide with the launch of the third generation Prius expected sometime in 2009, probably late Spring of 2009 - a few months after the third generation Prius debuts at the Detroit Auto Show.
Is a little bigger, faster and more fuel efficient Prius worth a 60 percent increase in production? Could third generation costs go down? Must they go down?
Consumers have been embracing the Prius in greater numbers, month-after-month. And if gas prices stay high, consumers appear ready to convert to hybrids in even larger numbers.
Is this enough to justify a 60 percent increase in Prius production - scheduled for 2009 as Toyota heads into the third generation launch?
It seems so, even without lithium.
Prius derivatives?
Still, what does all this mean?
Will rumors of a non-plug-in, 100 mpg Prius prove to be unfounded?
It seems hard to imagine that the next generation Prius could achieve 100 mpg, without some sort of plug-in functionality - which is a possibility. Still, Toyota has steadily maintained that plug-ins are not yet feasible, especially without lithium batteries.
Then again, perhaps the 100 mpg Prius is a derivative Prius, such as a smaller, city Prius.
Toyota has claimed that the future could hold multiple derivatives of the Prius, and a larger Prius - in addition to the smaller Prius. Both a smaller Prius and a larger Prius have made auto show appearances.
Might this smaller Prius also be sold as a Prius in 2009 as a 2010 model? Is there room, today, for both a full-sized, larger Prius and a smaller, city Prius?
At this point there are simply more questions than answers regarding the 2010 Toyota Prius. However, Toyota has indicated that it would debut a new unique hybrid at NAIAS in 2009, so the picture should clear greatly then.
If gas prices stay high, Toyota's third generation hybrid vehicles, especially the Prius, appear to have a bright future, regardless of when lithium finally starts powering next generation hybrid vehicles.
Thanks article from http://www.soultek.com/clean_energy/hybrid_cars/third_generation_toyota_prius_in_2008.htm |
